San Jose Leads San Francisco in Economic Forecast
Silicon Valley technology credited for job growth
The city of San Jose is one of the few bright spots in Northern California's economic recovery picture.
A new report by the University of the Pacific shows overall the state will continue with a double-digit unemployment rate through 2013.
San Jose does appear to be recovering though and that is thanks to its bread and butter industry: high tech.
San Jose is doing much better, according to forecast, than San Francisco which is listed as the state's biggest disappointment of 2010.
The numbers show the economic growth follows the technology industry. Tech is still centered in Silicon Valley and Silicon Valley is still centered in the South Bay. San Francisco hosts several financial service jobs and those remain on the decline, according to the survey.
Some other highlights of the January 2011 California Forecast:
- California remains in the sluggish, early stages of a long, slow five year recovery.
- Payroll jobs bottomed out this summer nearly 1.36 million jobs below their 15.2 million job peak in summer 2007. California will add 255,000 jobs over the next 12 months; less than one-fifth the total lost. Jobs will not recover their pre-recession peak until 2015.
- Despite sluggish job creation, real personal income is expected to near its 2007 peak in 2011, and exceed it in 2012 due to faster growth in non-wage income.
- After 8 years of zero net job growth from 2007 through 2015, the state’s population will have grown by 3 million people, keeping unemployment above 8% in 2015.
- Construction has lost 405,000 jobs since its peak in the winter of 2006, by far the most battered sector through the recession. This cyclical sector will begin growing again, however, adding 20,000 jobs by the end of 2011 and 96,000 additional jobs by the end of 2014.
- Housing starts remained near the record low levels in 2010 with only multi-family starts in coastal regions showing any significant growth. This will gradually improve with multi-family starts set for a strong rebound in 2011 while the more economically important single-family sector remains depressed. By 2015, housing starts will rebound to over 150,000 units per year with multi-family making up 35-40% of new units compared to 20-25% a decade earlier.