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Robert Kovacik, Sean Browning
The largest solar storm in five years is heading toward Earth, threatening to unleash a torrent of charged particles that could disrupt power grids, GPS and airplane flights.
A massive cloud of charged particles began shaking Earth's magnetic field early Thursday, but scientists say the largest solar storm in five years -- it arrived at about 2:45 a.m. PT -- had only a minor impact.
NOAA: Storm Ranking System
Such storms have the potential to disrupt utility grids, airline flights, satellite networks and GPS services, especially in northern areas. That hasn't happened, according to observers.
"For the strongest of storming, we generally need the magnetic field in that cloud, the coronal mass ejection (CME), to be opposite that of Earth’s own magnetic field," according to a post on NOAA's Facebook page. "So thinking of Earth as a bar magnet, and using the same bar magnet mental picture for that cloud, we get the strongest response when we have the opposite ends or polarities aligned or going in the same direction. When those two bar magnets are facing the same direction, the storming and coupling is not as strong."
"There are so many things that cause trouble with cell phones," said Dr. E.C. Krupp, Director of the Griffith Observatory. "I hesitate to blame the sun."
The blast could paint colorful auroras farther from the poles than normal, perhaps as far south at the Great Lakes, but no change is predicted for California.
"The night sky will look just like the night sky," said Krupp.
Scientists said the storm, which started with a massive solar flare earlier in the week, is growing as it races outward from the sun, expanding like a giant soap bubble. The particles are moving at 4 million mph.
Astronomers say the sun has been relatively quiet for some time. And this storm, while strong, may seem fiercer because Earth has been lulled by several years of weak solar activity.
The storm is part of the sun's normal 11-year cycle, which is supposed to reach peak storminess next year. Solar storms don't harm people, but they do disrupt technology. And during the last peak around 2002, experts learned that GPS was vulnerable to solar outbursts.
Because new technology has flourished since then, scientists could discover that some new systems are also at risk, said Jeffrey Hughes, director of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling at Boston University.
A decade ago, this type of solar storm happened a couple of times a year, Hughes said.
"This is a good-size event, but not the extreme type," said Bill Murtagh, program coordinator for the federal government's Space Weather Prediction Center.
The sun erupted Tuesday evening, and the most noticeable effects should arrive between 10 p.m. PST Wednesday and 2 a.m. PST Thursday, according to forecasters at the space weather center. The effects could linger through Friday morning.
The region of the sun that erupted can still send more blasts our way, Kunches said. He said another set of active sunspots is ready to aim at Earth right after this.
"This is a big sun spot group, particularly nasty," NASA solar physicist David Hathaway said. "Things are really twisted up and mixed up. It keeps flaring."
Storms like this start with sun spots, Hathaway said.
Then comes an initial solar flare of subatomic particles that resemble a filament coming out of the sun. That part already hit Earth only minutes after the initial burst, bringing radio and radiation disturbances.
After that comes the coronal mass ejection, which looks like a growing bubble and takes a couple days to reach Earth. It's that ejection that could cause magnetic disruptions Thursday.
"It could give us a bit of a jolt," NASA solar physicist Alex Young said.
The storm follows an earlier, weaker solar eruption that happened Sunday, Kunches said.
Still, the potential for problems is widespread. Solar storms have three ways they can disrupt technology on Earth: with magnetic, radio and radiation emissions. This is an unusual situation, when all three types of solar storm disruptions are likely to be strong, Kunches said. That makes it the strongest overall since December 2006.
That means "a whole host of things" could follow, he said.
North American utilities are monitoring for abnormalities on their grids and have contingency plans, said Kimberly Mielcarek, spokeswoman for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a consortium of electricity grid operators.
In 1989, a strong solar storm knocked out the power grid in Quebec, causing 6 million people to lose power.
Solar storms can also make global positioning systems less accurate and cause GPS outages.
The storm could trigger communication problems and additional radiation around the north and south poles - a risk that will probably force airlines to reroute flights. Some already have done so, Kunches said.
Satellites could be affected, too. NASA spokesman Rob Navias said the space agency isn't taking any extra precautions to protect astronauts on the International Space Station from added radiation.