Winter's Final Week a Wet One
Forecasters like to refer to the series of storms with "the storm door is open."
Its now looking like we'll start the work week with a mostly dry start under increasing clouds later Monday temperatures should be mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds will begin to increase later in the evening but showers should stay well to the north until we move into Monday night.
We should see rain increasing over the North Bay as winds begin to turn gusty near the coastline and hills. Winds should be in the 15-30 mph range as most of the substantial rain falls north of the Golden Gate. Lesser rain totals are likely around the South Bay as the Santa Cruz mountains see 1-2 inches of rain while totals of .25 to .50 falls in the inland valleys.
By this point rain totals in the North Bay should be in the 2-3 inch range while areas south of San Francisco are still lagging behind. As the front slowly passes south we will see rain increasing early Wednesday before turning showery by late afternoon/evening. The models suggest rain will lift north and stall out again in the North Bay, an item that will need to be watched for localized runoff issues.
Midweek Impact Totals:
North Bay rain: 2-5
East Bay: 1-2
South Bay: 0.25-0.75
Santa Cruz Mtns: 2-5
Rain at times for late Thursday into Friday with much cooler air aloft settling in for the weekend.As the cooler air moves in we will see an increasingly unstable atmosphere, coupled with any sunny breaks will lead to convective showers that will likely contain hail and allow snow levels to drop locally down to near 2,000-2,500 ft. Wind shear will also increase around this time which may support some stronger updrafts, we?ll keep an eye on this as it could allow for stronger thunderstorms to develop a slight risk for severe weather should the right set of circumstances develop, so stay tuned. More showers are expected for Sunday with highs staying in the low to mid 50s around the Bay Area.Several feet of snow should fall in the Sierra after a few inches of rain fall around the Bay Area during the next 7 days. Given we're going into this pattern relatively dry, we should be able to absorb most of it, with a few exceptions during heavier rains especially in the North Bay. We could see a significant recovery in rainfall and snowpack deficits in the next 7-10 day period. (Published Sunday, March 11, 2012)
The last week of winter is going to be a wet one. Between now and the first day of spring on March 20 the North Bay could see between 3 to 6 inches of rain. The rest of the Bay Area could see between 1 to 2 inches of rain.
The big weather days are Tuesday and Thursday, but things will be unsettled all week, according to the NBC Bay Area weather department. They say each system will be more powerful than the last one.
It all starts Sunday when a fairly weak system moves in to the area with enough moisture to wring out some light to moderate rain in North Bay.
The next system will begin pushing rain in our direction late Monday into Tuesday. Coastal facing hills will see the most rain, but everyone is supposed to get a pretty good soaking.
More rain will move in late Wednesday and into Thursday. The storm is also something that will likely drench pretty much everyone.
The storms are not very cold, which is not good news for skiers. Sierra snow levels early in the week are above 7,000 feet. Those levels should lower to 5,000 by the end of the week.
Published at 2:06 PM PDT on Mar 11, 2012