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The latest polls say the San Francisco 49ers' Santa Clara stadium ballot measure will win and win big on the June 8 vote. The most recent Mercury News-KGO poll shows the stadium proposal ahead by a "Super Bowl win over Denver"-caliber margin of 52-36.
Plans B and C both spoke up to the media over Memorial Day weekend, prior to the stadium vote just one week away.
"If this (vote) doesn't pass, they have to look elsewhere," our old friend Carmen Policy told the San Jose Mercury News, operating in his new capacity as a consultant to a rival stadium-building firm. "And we are the logical place for them to look."
Policy is correct in that San Francisco is a logical place to look, in that the city's name is on the franchise. But dealing with that guy just always carries the risk of getting in trouble and losing your draft picks.
Oakland wants in on the action as well. "I really believe the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum is the best location for a stadium for the Raiders and the 49ers," Oakland City Councilman Ignacio de la Fuente told the Merc.
Why even have this conversation when the latest poll shows the stadium measure is winning by 16 points?
The polling analysis site Ballotpedia lists five significant polls conducted by research firms on Santa Clara voters in the last year. The results are all over the place. If you're San Francisco or Oakland, you just hold out hope that that reflects a volatility in this issue showing people Santa Clarans may change their minds on it quickly.
San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom made a great point while successfully trying to sound interested in something other than the Lieutenant Governor's race. "They'll pass it and have a lot of press conferences calling it 'a historic day' and that the 49ers 'are proud to stay in the Bay Area," Newsom told the San Francisco Chronicle. "Then a year will become two and perhaps three" before the stadium actually does break ground, and the plan may sputter.
Newsom saw the very same thing happen in 1997 when the San Francisco voters approved a new stadium that never got built. Hoping that process repeats itself is the best chance San Francisco and Oakland have on this thing.
And they've got about as good a chance as Denver had in Super Bowl XXIV.
Joe Kukura is a freelance writer who only cares about the size of the RedZone Network screen inside the stadium.