Last season, the San Francisco 49ers were the most surprising team in the NFL.
No one predicted San Francisco – which hadn’t had a winning season since 2002 – would go 13-3, reach the NFC Championship Game and have a much-maligned quarterback named Alex Smith become their clutch, late-game leader.
Now, with mini-camp over, training camp about a month away and Game 1 of the regular season still on the distant horizon on Sept. 9, ESPN’s NFL guru John Clayton has looked into the future and divined that Jim Harbaugh’s team will finish 10-6 in 2012.
At first glance, that might seem like a comedown.
Why the slip? Especially with all the reasons for optimism at Niners headquarters. After all, the defense comes back intact, the offense has added some playmakers and it’s Year 2 under Harbaugh, so players should be making bigger strides this season now that they’re completely familier with the playbook and schemes.
Tight end Vernon Davis recently said, in fact, that the Niners have what it takes to be a Super Bowl team.
“I don’t want to sound too cocky,” he told the Sacramento Bee’s Matt Barrows last week. “I think we have the potential. I think we have a lot of potential. And I’m not wrong for saying that because of the talent we have. … I’m excited.”
Sports
But Clayton’s prediction makes sense for a lot of reasons.
First off, look at the 2012 schedule. San Francisco may be hard pressed to get off to a rolling start, with a season-opening game at Lambeau Field against the Packers, followed by a game at Candlestick against the physical Detroit Lions – who might want to avenge their late-game loss of last season. Also on the schedule are the Giants, Bills, Jets, Bears, Saints and Patriots. Plus, Clayton predicts the NFC West – long a doormat – will be stronger this season.
ESPN NFC West blogger Mike Sando agrees with Clayton, writing that “10 or 11 victories feels about right.”
Still, Clayton’s projection would make the 49ers NFC West champs again (over 9-7 Seattle) and give the team consecutive winning seasons for the first time since 2001-02.
Another reason for the drop to 10-6 from 13-3 is the fact a 13-3 record is an incredible feat. Everything has to go well for that to occur. Last season the team was relatively healthy and the team built some early momentum. Believing the same luck might hold true for consecutive seasons might be too much to expect. As Sando noted, 19 NFL teams won at least 13 games in a season from 2004 through 2010, and all 19 had lower victory totals the following season.
Also last season, the 49ers likely caught many teams by surprise. Smith’s late-game abilities, the strength of the running game, Harbaugh’s play calling, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s schemes and the emergence of solid cornerbacks and rookie pass rusher Aldon Smith couldn’t have been foreseen. Now, the entire league knows what the 49ers bring to the table – and some teams have scores to settle (see coach Jim Schwartz and Detroit, Game 2).
Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com has a similar assessment of the 49ers going into 2012 as Clayton, and believes the coming season will be a much tougher test for Harbaugh & Co. In his first season, Harbaugh set the bar high. Now he has to live up to it. The schedule, Rosenthal says, “is brutal on paper.”
“This season almost inevitably won’t go as smoothly as last for this 49ers team,” writes Rosenthal. “We are really interested in seeing how Harbaugh and the 49ers respond to adversity. They are no longer underdogs.”
Still, if the 49ers do finish 10-6, that will mean a second straight playoff appearance and a chance to do exactly what Davis believes they have a chance to do: go to the Super Bowl.
If that happens, no one in Northern California will care that the team slipped from 13-3 to 10-6.
