Some NFL analysts look at Derek Carr and see a future star. Others see a quarterback who showed some promise as a rookie in 2014, but wasn’t as good as the team and many fans believe.
In February, JJ Zachariason of the analytic website Numberfire.com, for instance, pointed out that though Carr posted the same quarterback rating as the Colts’ Andrew Luck in their rookie seasons, stats such as Net Expected Points and yards per attempt show that Carr’s upside may be much lower than optimists believe. And, in comparison with all other rookie quarterbacks since 2000, Carr actually ranked quite low.
“When looking only at rookie quarterbacks, his score ranked in the bottom-quarter percentile,” wrote Zachariason. “Regardless of his weapons – regardless of his running game – this cannot be defined in any way, shape or form as good.”
Yet to many NFL scouts, coaches and executives, Carr is indeed a quarterback worth building around.
In a rating of all 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL by ESPN.com’s Mike Sando (based on reviews by an NFL panel of experts, released this week), Carr is ranked in the third of five tiers of QBs, a tier consisting of players “good enough to start but need lots of support, making it tougher to contend at the highest level.”
For a rookie on a 3-13 team with multiple holes and weak spots on both sides of the ball, that’s not a bad place to be.
And, opponents were impressed by Carr’s leadership, arm, poise and footwork.
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“He can spin it, he has good accuracy, he makes quick decisions,” said one opposing defensive coordinator in Sando’s piece. “The people that like him but do not rank him higher, well, he has an awful supporting cast. No run game, awful receivers. They drafted some guys. They have a shot.”
Certainly, the addition of rookie Amari Cooper, veteran Michael Crabtree and the return of Rod Streater help the receiving corps. And Latavius Murray and some tweaks of the offensive line may produce a better running game. Throw in what seems to be a better defensive unit, and Carr’s cast may be much better in 2015.
One personnel director from another team believes Carr could be much, much better in his second season.
“I think he is strong in the pocket, and just watching him, it feels like he is in command, knows where he is going with the ball and has plenty of arm strength,” he said. “The lack of talent around him is pretty apparent. You get the offensive line and run game going, surround him with some better players, and he makes a big jump.”
