There have been very few "winners" in the investing landscape so far this year. But the clearest one is gold. 

We shot above $3,500 an ounce overnight, after shooting above $3,400 yesterday for the first time. It's been like this for weeks. "Guess we should've bought some!" the husband and I joked to each other. Gold is up almost 30% just since January 1. If it were in the S&P 500, it would be the second-best performer year-to-date behind Philip Morris. 

It's been acting exactly like...all the gold bugs for years have been telling us it would. "By owning gold, I'm protected against inflation," wrote Ron Paul--who has been buying gold since the 1960s--last year. "Gold is an honest asset." The Bitcoiners sing much the same tune, warning about dollar debasement. 

What's odd is watching this all play out under a Republican administration that ostensibly shares the gold bugs' concerns. Treasury Secretary Bessent has a "3/3/3" plan that includes getting the deficit down to "just" 3% of GDP--roughly half of where we are now--in order to keep our national debt from growing much further. Elon Musk's "DOGE" group is frantically trying to help them reach that target. 

But the market is looking through all of that, instead seeing the GOP's budget bill that could add almost $6 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. On top of that is the heightened near-term recession risk from tariffs, which would also boost the deficit. Plus stubbornly high interest rates, which are now one of the biggest government spending items (costlier even than our national defense). 

Layer on top of that concerns about what the Federal Reserve's future role could be. It's not so much rate cuts now that worry the market, which is actually expecting three or so cuts this year. It's whether a compliant Fed in the future could restart Treasury purchases or use other ways of trying to lower bond yields, effectively monetizing the debt. 

Hence the dollar debasement concern. You can only grow or inflate your way out of such high debt levels (or, well, default). Growth is looking shakier right now. Inflation is looking stickier. And the dollar has been sliding for weeks. Its 5.5% drop since Trump's inauguration is the worst of any start to a presidential term since Bespoke's data began in 1974. 

So yes, score one for the gold bugs and the crypto enthusiasts. As many of them have been saying for years--you don't have to put your entire net worth in it. A five percent portfolio allocation is typically a recommended hedge. 

But...be very careful piling in right now. Longtime bull Dennis Gartman--who called this move last year--now warns we are entering the "bubble phase" of this rally and it no longer makes sense "fundamentally or technically." He told me he has actually begun recommending that institutional clients trim their 5% positions here. 

It's always the very moment of validation for some investors that the market likes to change its mind and go the other direction. 

See you at 1 p.m...

Kelly

Twitter: @KellyCNBC

Instagram: @realkellyevans