Newly released projections reveal the worst impacts of the coronavirus in California may still be nearly a month away.
The rate of COVID-19 deaths is expected to peak on April 25 with 148 deaths per day, according to data released Thursday by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a research center at the University of Washington. The data also predicts the number of coronavirus cases in California will largely fade away by July after peaking on April 24. The entire U.S. is expected to experience its coronavirus peak 11 days earlier, April 14, suggesting preventive measures made early on in California, such as social distancing and school and business closures, may be helping "flatten the curve" on future coronavirus cases.
The coronavirus death rate is expected to peak in California on April 25 with 148 daily deaths, according to projections released by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
In a worst case scenario, however, the data points to as many as 356 deaths per day in California at the height of the pandemic. The death rate is expected to drop to zero by mid July. Nationally, the data predicts 2,341 deaths per day at the peak of viral infections, with a worst case scenario of twice that many.
Unlike some previous models, which estimate millions of deaths across the United States, the University of Washington study takes into account the effects of social distancing, business closures, and shelter-in place orders. The data, according to researchers, also assumes government guidelines will be followed by all states across the country.
"The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures," the study notes.
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The daily death rate in the U.S. is expected to largely fade away by mid July, according to data released by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
By July 16, the death rate for the coronavirus will likely drop to zero in the U.S., according to the new predictions. By then, COVID-19 is expected to have killed 81,114 people in the U.S., which includes 6,109 deaths in California.
Capacity at intensive care units across California is also a concern highlighted in the new report. There are currently 1,993 ICU beds in the state, however, it's projected California will need 2,292 beds when the virus peaks in April. A worst-case projection finds the need could be as high as 5,714 ICU beds.
The analysis also predicts a critical shortage of hospital beds across. The greatest need is expected to also develop in mid-April, when the study projects 15,242 hospital beds will be needed. California currently has 26,654 beds, however, a worst-case estimate predicts a need of 38,098 beds -- a shortage of more than 11,000 beds.
