Donald Trump

Election Pollsters Explain What Went Wrong

It was supposed to be a breeze: In the run-up to Election Day, the majority of pollsters and political insiders had Hillary Clinton heading into the Oval Office.

“I thought it was going to be a landslide for Hillary, I really did. Just all the polls seemed that way,” San Mateo’s Steve Carey said.

But by the time the polls closed, those predictions went the other direction, shocking many Americans and even some Donald Trump supporters.

“The extent of the victory was surprising to everyone,” Hank, a San Francisco man, said.

Experts admitted even they got it wrong.

“We all thought [Hillary Clinton was] going to mail it in and win by two, three or four points – game over. We were wrong, so sometimes the numbers can fool you,” said Bill Whalen, a fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution.

Whalen says many of the polls were correct when it comes to the popular vote, which Clinton is leading in. However, fewer than expected Hispanics and African-Americans turned out for her on Election Day.

“Where the polls didn’t get it right was how the Electoral College broke state by state. And they simply missed this. There was a stronger turnout for Donald Trump than anticipated. The Trump campaign talked about the so-called ‘hidden vote’ coming out. The hidden vote materialized,” Whalen said.

Compared to Brexit’s hidden vote, Whalen says the difference is that the Brits were focused more on sovereignty, whereas Americans were more focused on revolting against the political class.

As for whether we can trust future polls: “We can trust the polling, but we’re probably going to have to be less dependent on day-to-day horse race polling,” Whalen said. “We’re going to have to step back and say, the data doesn’t necessarily predict everything.”

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