Pre-election polls necessarily have to be taken with a grain of salt, but the latest show San Francisco Mayor less popular than possible rival, California Attorney General Jerry Brown, right here in Newsom's home town.
A poll of 423 residents by David Binder taken earlier this month has Brown leading Newsom by 17 percentage points.
A Moore Methods poll of 600 voters statewide shows Brown with an even bigger lead of 29 percentage points in a possible statewide primary match-up.
What the numbers do accurately forecast is fundraising opportunities. Wealthy campaign donors generally like to bet on front-running candidates.
And in that race, Brown is well ahead of Newsom.
With seven times as much money as Newsom, the Brown campaign has a long head start before having even made his campaign official -- and once Brown does that, the lead may just get longer.
Jackson West has heard even some Newsom admirers lamenting that he probably won't win.