SANTA CLARA – The Raiders want to win Thursday's game against the 49ers. Raider Nation does, too. Bragging rights are invaluable in a rivalry game, especially in the last game these two play with both teams in the Bay Area.
There is, however, some incentive to lose.
The Raiders (1-6) currently have the best chance to earn the top pick in next year's NFL draft, according to ESPN's Football Power Index.
The Silver and Black currently have a 26 percent chance of earning the No. 1 overall pick. A loss to the 1-7 49ers, a major competitor for the top pick, would increase it considerably.
The Raiders' chances go to 37 percent with a loss on Thursday night. You can decide if that's a good or bad thing.
If they beat the 49ers, their chances of securing the top pick drop to 9 percent.
The 49ers currently have a 22 percent chance of earning the No. 1 pick. A loss increases their percentage to a whopping 41, while a win drops them to 11 percent.
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Raiders and 49ers are a combined 2-13 (.133) this season - the worst combined win pct. in a prime-time game in Week 8 or later since the 1970 merger (min. 5 games).
But Raiders have best chance to get No. 1 pick in 2019 NFL Draft, per FPI, while 49ers have the 3rd-best chance: pic.twitter.com/NEPNsPbUdR— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 1, 2018
All of that sounds really good, but how are the numbers calculated? The FPI is a prediction system for the NFL composed of offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency. It predicts victors for each game, and for teams' seasons as a whole. That's how the FPI can offer odds on who will have the worst record this season.
