There’s no question about the end result for Barry Bonds when the 2019 National Baseball Hall of Fame class is announced Tuesday afternoon.
The seven-time MVP has not gotten particularly close to induction in his previous six years on the ballot, and he won’t get in this year.
Once again, the only thing that matters for the most prolific slugger in Major League history is a percentage. How much progress has Bonds made since 2018, when he inched forward to 56.4 percent? We’ll find out in a few hours.
Bonds, according to a Hall of Fame tracker run by Ryan Thibodaux should see a bit more progress when results are announced on MLB Network at 3:15.
Thibodaux’s spectacularly detailed tracker has Bonds listed on 71.2 percent of the ballots that have been released to the public, but that accounts for just a little more than half of the overall vote, and Bonds traditionally has seen a dip on the final day. Voters who prefer to remain anonymous have always judged him more harshly than those who release their ballots through their employers or on Twitter.
Bonds was first listed on the ballot in 2013, receiving 36.2 percent of the vote from an electorate that has judged Bonds and Roger Clemens harshly because of PED connections. He got into the forties in 2016 and made a big jump to 53.8 percent a year later when Bud Selig, who oversaw the steroid era, was inducted and many voters changed their minds.
Bonds has also seen gains as younger writers have reached voting eligibility -- he is listed on seven of eight ballots already released by first-time voters -- but he’s running out of time. He gained just 2.6 percent last year and remains well short of the 75 percent needed for enshrinement.
Barring a huge jump today, Bonds should remain in a precarious position with just three years remaining on the ballot.
This year’s class will be led by Mariano Rivera, who is listed on 100 percent of the ballots thus far and could become the first unanimous inductee. Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez, and Mike Mussina are also trending towards induction, with Mussina the only real question mark.
Former Giant Jeff Kent, in his sixth year on the ballot, stands at just 16.8 percent at the moment, per Thibodaux. Omar Vizquel, another who wore orange and black, is currently at 37.6 percent.