Why Madison Bumgarner's Trade Value Might Not Be Seen as an Ace Pitcher

Time is ticking away on Madison Bumgarner's days a Giant. 

As the July 31 trade deadline approaches, memories of Bumgarner in the Bay Area are brought up instead of his future with the Giants. While it's expected the left-handed pitcher is bound to be on a new team in the coming weeks, what will San Francisco see in a trade for its ace? 

It might not be as much as expected. Advanced stats could have teams worried about who exactly Bumgarner will be for the rest of the season. 

"Teams interested in Madison Bumgarner are asking, 'Just what would we be getting?'" The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal said Saturday on FOX's MLB broadcast. "Yes Bumgarner is throwing the hardest he has since 2015 and his strikeout rate is almost at its career norm, but his hard-hit percentage is the highest of his career and many of his expected stats -- based on launch angle and exit velocity -- basically depict him as a below average starter. 

"So, his trade value might not be as an ace, it might be more as a mid-rotation pitcher." 

Bumgarner got rocked Thursday night in what could have been his last start in the Giants-Dodgers rivalry. He lasted only 3 2/3 innings while allowing 10 hits and six earned runs. His ERA is now at a career-high 4.28. The advanced stats are concerning, too. 

Through 16 starts, Bumgarner's hard-hit percentage is a career-worst 47 percent, according to FanGraphs. This is now the sixth straight season his hard-hit percentage has increased, and it has jumped 5.4 percent, up from 41.6 percent last season. His soft-hit percentage is also a career-low at 14.4 percent. 

Even though Bumgarner's average four-seam fastball (92.2 mph) is his exact career average and his highest since 2015, he's getting hit harder than ever. 

One player that seemed like he could be a fit in a Bumgarner trade is Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier. The 24-year-old was recently demoted to make room for Edwin Encarnacion despite batting .283 with 11 home runs in 53 games this year. It was assumed Frazier was more available than ever, and a swap of Bumgarner for a powerful young outfielder made sense for both sides. 

Don't buy your Frazier Giants jerseys quite yet, however.

"They [the Yankees] do not intend to give up four more years of Frazier for a rental such as Madison Bumgarner," Rosenthal said Saturday.

[RELATED: MadBum's run against rival Dodgers worth appreciating]

With the trade deadline slightly over a month away, it will be interesting to see what exactly the Giants can receive in return for Bumgarner. Will they find future stars for a former postseason hero? Or will it be far from that for San Francisco?

Only time will tell, and it appears to be ticking away for Bumgarner and the Giants.

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