Hazardous Weather Outlook for Thursday

Here’s a long-form discussion of the weather elements coming together for a stretch of very rainy and windy weather at times over the next few days. There continues to be some disagreement between the computer model runs on how long/how much rain will fall around the Bay Area as well as some timing issues. However there are some factors that are more certain: heavy rain totals in the coastal mountains likely measuring up by several inches between Friday and Wednesday of next week, periods of gusty winds as areas of low pressure spin towards the coast from time to time and heavy sierra snow at varying snow levels (5,000 to 6,500 then back to 5,000 ft.). As moisture continues speeding in powered by an energetic moisture rich flow off the Pacific – our local ocean-facing mountains will get the worst of the weather in terms of rainfall and wind gusts. Coastal areas and hilltops may see some damaging wind gusts on Saturday – as the soil turns more saturated it won’t take winds to get very strong to cause more troubles early next week. One slightly positive change from 24 hours ago, is that the rain events appear a little more ‘progressive’ meaning – the rain while heavy at times isn’t stalling out for more than a day over one particular area. If it does – given the intense rain rates fueled by juicy subtropical moisture – that’s when we could see some localized flooding issues. We’ll continue to monitor and offer updates as the situation evolves. *11AM UPDATE* Model runs are starting to show heaviest rain potential a little further south from Santa Cruz to San Luis Obispo/Central Coast through Monday. This would mean periods of moderate to heavy rain for the Bay Area, but the worst of the weather aiming in just to our south. This is subject to a few more adjustments no doubt as we enter the weekend – stay tuned.