Videocast: Mild Monday, Tuesday Showers?

Wind-dried air over the Bay Area coupled with mainly clear skies should set us up for a brisk, chilly morning on Monday with inland valleys dipping into the 30s. Highs should again climb into the 60s for most locations, perhaps not quite as warm as the weekend as we see a hint of the sea breeze picking up later in the day and mid-high level clouds drifting in later on. These clouds are associated with a weather system that will close off to form a ‘cut-off’ low or low pressure that is detached from the main jet stream pattern. The computer models nearly all agree on one thing; this low will close off and form just west of the Bay Area by Monday night and move down nearly parallel to the coast on Tuesday. What these same computer models can’t quite agree on, is just how far offshore the center of the low will be. For now the trend seems to be to keep the low far enough offshore that chances for showers will be staying offshore. However, as is the case with cut-off lows, then tend not to be forecast well by these same computer models – so stay tuned to Jeff and Christina’s forecast to see how Tuesday plays out. This same low pressure system by the way will park just offshore the Southern California coast before swinging back inland on Saturday. Some rain is possible from the Central Coast southward as this happens, again subject to change some may try to creep closer to the Bay Area as this low moves ENE over the Central/Southern California coastline by next weekend. These are however mostly minor chances for some rain in what is normally the wettest time of year for the Bay Area. Neither solution seems to bring a much needed shot of snow to the Sierra either – hopefully that can change later in the month. Enjoy your Monday! – Rob Mayeda