Videocast: Wetter, Windy By Midweek

Its now looking like we’ll start the work week with a mostly dry start under increasing clouds later Monday temperatures should be mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds will begin to increase later in the evening but showers should stay well to the north until we move into Monday night. We should see rain increasing over the North Bay as winds begin to turn gusty near the coastline and hills. Winds should be in the 15-30 mph range as most of the substantial rain falls north of the Golden Gate. Lesser rain totals are likely around the South Bay as the Santa Cruz mountains see 1-2 inches of rain while totals of .25 to .50 falls in the inland valleys. By this point rain totals in the North Bay should be in the 2-3 inch range while areas south of San Francisco are still lagging behind. As the front slowly passes south we will see rain increasing early Wednesday before turning showery by late afternoon/evening. The models suggest rain will lift north and stall out again in the North Bay, an item that will need to be watched for localized runoff issues. Midweek Impact Totals: North Bay rain: 2-5 SF/Peninsula: 1.5-3 East Bay: 1-2 South Bay: 0.25-0.75 Santa Cruz Mtns: 2-5 Rain at times for late Thursday into Friday with much cooler air aloft settling in for the weekend.As the cooler air moves in we will see an increasingly unstable atmosphere, coupled with any sunny breaks will lead to convective showers that will likely contain hail and allow snow levels to drop locally down to near 2,000-2,500 ft. Wind shear will also increase around this time which may support some stronger updrafts, we?ll keep an eye on this as it could allow for stronger thunderstorms to develop a slight risk for severe weather should the right set of circumstances develop, so stay tuned. More showers are expected for Sunday with highs staying in the low to mid 50s around the Bay Area.Several feet of snow should fall in the Sierra after a few inches of rain fall around the Bay Area during the next 7 days. Given we’re going into this pattern relatively dry, we should be able to absorb most of it, with a few exceptions during heavier rains especially in the North Bay. We could see a significant recovery in rainfall and snowpack deficits in the next 7-10 day period.