How Karlsson trade could impact Sharks' defense next season

• Editor's Note: Sheng Peng will be a regular contributor to NBC Sports California’s Sharks coverage. You can read more of his coverage on San Jose Hockey Now, listen to him on the San Jose Hockey Now Podcast, and follow him on Twitter at @Sheng_Peng.

What will the Sharks' defense look like next season if they trade Erik Karlsson? It probably is going to be very ugly, at least offensively.

Karlsson, of course, put up an NHL-leading 101 points, becoming the first defenseman since Brian Leetch in 1991-92 to eclipse the century mark.

What was striking was how much of the Sharks’ blueline offense Karlsson dominated. Underscoring that, the Sharks were one of just two teams, along with the Montreal Canadiens, that didn’t have at least two 25-point or more blueliners on their roster at any point during the season.

Matt Benning was the Sharks’ second-most prolific defenseman with 24 points. San Jose is going to miss Karlsson offensively – and maybe even a little defensively.

Let’s review Karlsson, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Matt Benning, Mario Ferraro, Radim Simek, Jacob MacDonald, Henry Thrun, and Nikolai Knyzhov’s seasons, through the vantage point of SPORTLOGiQ’s micro-stats.

Erik Karlsson

There are the Karlsson numbers that everybody knows: 101 points and 74 at even strength. Both of which are 25 more than the runner-up defensemen.

And there are the dominating Karlsson numbers that you might not know.

According to SPORTLOGiQ, per 20 minutes at 5-on-5, Karlsson was fifth among all NHL defensemen in Offensive Zone Possession Time, sixth in Total Possession Time, third in Slot Pass Completions, seventh in OZ Dekes, third in Zone Exits, fourth in Offense-Generating Plays, and second in Possession-Driving Plays.

Underscoring his importance to San Jose, the next Sharks defenseman after Karlsson in these respective micro-stats was 243rd among all NHL defensemen in Offensive Zone Possession Time, 169th in Total Possession Time, 59th in Slot Pass Completions, 56th in OZ Dekes, 148th in Zone Exits, 233rd in Offense-Generating Plays, and 113th in Possession-Driving Plays.

Per SPORTLOGiQ, offense-generating plays “Are made up of all plays that lead to scoring chances. In other words, they’re plays that move the puck into high-danger areas or situations, recovering pucks for your team, and putting high-quality shot attempts on net.” Possession-driving plays are defined as “transitioning the puck up the ice under control, meaning not tossing it up the boards and hoping to win it back.”

Essentially, without Karlsson, the Sharks do not appear to have a reliable defenseman on the roster to exit the zone, hold onto the puck in the OZ, create offense, or drive possession.

Karlsson also had some value defensively: Besides being among the league’s best at Zone Exits – isn’t that a huge part of defense, to get the puck out of the zone to go on offense? – he also led all Sharks defensemen in Blocked Passes.

Mario Ferraro

Ferraro is the only Sharks defenseman besides Karlsson to average over 20 minutes a game in each of the past three seasons.

The results haven’t been there though: Offensively, he put up just four goals and seven assists in 72 games and ultimately was supplanted on the power play by Benning. Defensively, Ferraro’s minus-30 at 5-on-5 was fourth-worst among all NHL defensemen. 

Just in comparison, Karlsson was a minus-26 in All Situations but was second-best among Sharks defenders with an even goal differential at 5-on-5. That disparity is explained by Karlsson’s league-worst 21 empty net goals against.

But back to Ferraro, he continues to play big minutes and still is well-regarded league-wide: A lot of people believe that he just is in a bad situation with the Sharks. On a better team, we would see a better Ferraro.

One area where we can see Ferraro’s vaunted competitiveness is puck battles: He was third among Sharks defensemen in his Puck Battle Wins rate at 5-on-5.

Matt Benning

For just $1.25 million in Average Annual Value (AAV), Benning acted as duct tape for the many Sharks blueline shortcomings this season.

Missing a puck-mover from the backend after Karlsson? Benning had a career-high 23 assists, and notably, was one of just 15 defensemen last season to play over 1,000 5-on-5 minutes and average one assist or better per 60 minutes. Ahead of him was a who’s who in puck-moving defensemen like Karlsson, Adam Fox, Josh Morrissey, and Cale Makar.

Missing a reliable second power play option after Karlsson? Benning got a regular PP shift for the first time since 2018-19 with the Edmonton Oilers.

Missing a go-to shutdown defenseman? For the first time in his career, Benning was a first-choice penalty killer on a nightly basis.

Missing a top-four defenseman? Benning was third on the Sharks, after Karlsson and Mario Ferraro, with 19:47 played per game.

Yes, he might have been playing over his head a little, but that’s not his fault. By virtually any measure, Benning was a top-four rearguard for San Jose this past season.

Underscoring Benning’s underrated offensive contributions, he was second among Sharks defensemen in Slot Pass Completions at 5-on-5, after Karlsson.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic

After averaging a career-low 15:13 per game last season, Vlasic got back on track this season with about two more minutes per game (17:28) and a regular role on the penalty kill.

As a sign of his increased effectiveness and defensive engagement, Vlasic went from sixth among Sharks defensemen in Stick Checks last season to the head of the class.

While the 36-year-old is not likely to find the form that shut down a young Connor McDavid in the 2017 playoffs, it’s good to see Vlasic play credible hockey once again.  

Jacob MacDonald

It’s hard to evaluate Macdonald’s work with the Sharks because he played both forward and defense for them.

But he might be first in line for greater offensive responsibilities if the Sharks trade Karlsson: The 30-year-old led AHL defensemen in goals in 2017-18 and 2019-20.

There’s some untapped offense there that hasn’t manifested itself at the NHL level. Despite playing up front and getting his share of power play time, MacDonald had just one goal and five assists in 25 games in teal.

In much the same way, MacDonald’s micro-stats are a mix of forward and defense, so they’re not very accurate. But it’s interesting to note that among Sharks defensemen, he was second to Karlsson in Offense-Generating Plays at 5-on-5. Even from the backend, MacDonald did show good instincts attacking from the slot, though he couldn’t cash in most of the time.

There’s some offense there, but MacDonald is running out of time to show it in the NHL.

Radim Simek

Simek is a five-year NHL veteran, but he’s never topped 50 games. That mostly can be attributed to the hard-hitting stay-at-home defenseman’s inability to stay healthy.

When he is in the lineup though, Simek’s micro-stats track well. Granted, as a bottom-pairing defenseman, he gets easier competition, but it also makes you wonder if he could put together a pretty good season (or career) if he were to stay healthy.

Per SPORTLOGiQ, Simek was 15th among all NHL defensemen in Blocked Shots rate at 5-on-5, third in Loose Puck Recoveries, and 21st in Puck Battle Wins.

He’s a hard-to-play-against defenseman, but it’s hard to keep him in the line-up.

Henry Thrun

Recent Harvard graduate Thrun played just eight games for the Sharks but made an impression. Keep in mind, the 'small sample size' yada yada.

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But he looks comfortable with the puck, finishing second on the Sharks' defense, behind Karlsson, in Offensive Zone Possession Time. Defensively, he led Sharks defensemen in Defensive Zone Denial Rate.

He has a lot to work on – for example, he was last among Sharks rearguards in Puck Battle Wins rate – but that’s something that will come along as he gets stronger and savvier.

Nikolai Knyzhov

Knyzhov got just 12 games in his first action back since his impressive 2020-21 rookie campaign. So like Thrun, 'small sample size' alert.

But here are a couple of intriguing micro-stat nuggets: He was second among Sharks blueliners, behind Karlsson, in Dump-Out Rate, meaning Knyzhov was able to regularly get the puck out of the zone with possession (i.e. not dumping it out). He also led the defense in Stick Checks rate, so he was active defensively.

Those are both good signs as Knyzhov tries to put his career back on track after back-to-back injury-filled campaigns.