climate in crisis

When 1st Rain Could Help Our Above Average Fire Season That's Burned Over 1 Million Acres

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We all know the fire season this year has been raging, especially to our North & East. Just look at the data and you’ll see this time last year there was 854,369 acres burned and this year we’re already at 1,385,719. Both years ranking above our 5 year average to date of 708,337. Warmer years and the drought are really the underlying causes for the fast spreading wildfires. While firefighters are doing everything they can, what we really need is a change in the weather to bring much needed rain.

So, where do we go from here? Checkout my long range forecast below and you’ll see we are expecting some smoke improvement this weekend (8/21 -8/22) but no rain. However, there’s early indications that the pattern may change by September 24th to 29th that could bring us our 1st system of the season near the California and Oregon border. While nothing is locked in just yet it’s very promising to see the pattern trying to signal a shift by the end of September. Something else we’ll be watching is a 66% chance for La Niña to develop during Fall & Winter. Looking back at the data La Niña only brings us above 100% of average just 27% of times. So, La Niña is not always a good boost for the entire rain season but at least we’ll be watching for some potential chances the end of September. We’ll have more updates and let you know how this plays out as we get closer.

You can find out more about how the Bay Area climate is changing in a series of stories the Microclimate Weather Team worked on across the Bay Area.

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