Most of the focus in Sunday’s matchup between the 49ers and Bills in Buffalo will be on San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick.
Kaepernick, after all, will be making his return to the starting lineup, and everyone from head coach Chip Kelly, Kaepernick’s teammates, the media and 49ers fans are eager to see if he can play like the Kaepernick who led San Francisco to a Super Bowl in February of 2013.
But the key matchup in Sunday’s game may be the 49ers’ run defense against the Bills’ third-ranked running attack and No. 1 ballcarrier LeSean McCoy.
The 49ers have allowed 100-yard rushing days by opposing backs in four straight games, and San Francisco’s run defense is ranked 31st in the league. On paper, it’s a bad matchup for the visiting 49ers.
McCoy – who once played for Kelly with the Philadelphia Eagles, before Kelly traded him – is averaging 6.11 yards per carry over his past three games. McCoy is the No. 4 rusher in the NFL, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt overall, with four TDs.
Kelly went into this past week vowing to evaluate players at every position after his team’s fourth loss in five games, but the defense Sunday will essentially be the same one fielded Oct. 6, in San Francisco’s most recent game, a 33-21 loss to the Cardinals in which Arizona running back David Johnson had 157 yards and two TDs.
Niners defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil said this week that his unit was trying to make fixes through better execution rather than lineup changes.
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“We’re not making major changes, guys,” O’Neil said. “I believe in what we’re doing. We’ve got a good coaching staff. We’ve got good personnel. We’ve just got to do a better job focusing on the details, executing and then we’ll do a better job as a defensive staff focusing on what our guys are doing well.”
Meanwhile, Kaepernick and the offense will have to deal with Bills linebacker Lorenzo Alexander, who has an NFL-leading seven sacks. Pressure, in general, has been a problem for Kaepernick in recent seasons. He was sacked 39 times in 2013, a franchise-record 52 in 2014 and 28 in just nine games before losing his job in 2015.
Oddsmakers believe the 49ers could be in for a rough day. They’ve made the 3-2 Bills 7½-point favorites for the game, set to kick off at 10 a.m. in the Bay Area.
