Winter is set to come roaring back into the Bay Area to start the week.
Wind speeds in the 15-35 mph range will kick in overnight with gusts nearing 45+ along the coast and hills from 10pm to around noon Monday.
The much colder core nature of this system will yield less moisture (lower than earlier expected rainfall amounts) but much of that colder air will race down across the Bay Area making things feel very 'wind-chilled' outside and promoting gusty winds especially along the water and hilltops where friction plays less of a role slowing down wind speeds.
We still will have moderate rain at times, turning more scattered and showery as the colder air mass moves into the Bay Area on Monday, Meteorologist Rob Mayeda says. Daytime sunny breaks coupled with this cooler air aloft will encourage showers to form especially near the hills and some heavier showers may contain ice pellets. However rain totals look to be mainly in the .05" to .30" range for inland areas and .25" to .50" in the hills. Models continue trending drier on these numbers so we may end up with locally less than these totals.
Back to the cold air, snow levels will drop rapidly as the colder air aloft moves into the region. Its looking like snow levels may drop to near 3,500 now around the Bay Area - cold enough to get some snow mixed down to the peaks of Mt. Diablo and definitely Mt. Hamilton. However as this colder air arrives, the air will be much drier reducing chances for too much in the way of showers. Snow that falls on our Bay Area peaks may quickly melt thanks to the relatively warm soil/ground temperatures but could yield a briefly pretty sight by late Monday afternoon.
Showers and wind speeds should decrease heading into Monday evening.
VALENTINE'S DAY SHOWERS?
Tuesday into Wednesday's forecast is still challenging as the computer models are arguing like a bad Valentine's date night. One (GFS) insists on a quick moving, decent rain event late Tuesday into Wednesday while others (NAM) push the chance for showers over the Bay Area and into the Sierra instead.